Q4 2017 Market Update: What? Tax Reform?

Marin County median prices edged up yet again, by an overall 5% for 2017.  Interestingly, some of the biggest gains were in the most expensive markets, contrary to expectations that reduced deductions from property taxes and mortgages would put a damper on high priced homes.  Tiburon (+21%), Kentfield (+28%). 

As the full implications of the tax changes are digested, look for increased competition for homes under $1MM, where property taxes will still meet the $10K per year limit on deductibility.  2018 is expected to be another year of appreciation in our market. 

Call today for a consultation about home buying and selling strategies that will deliver the real estate experience you seek!  I guarantee a fact-filled, pressure-free conversation!

My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!       

2017 3rd Quarter Update

Tragic Wine Country Fires

Though technically the fires did not happen in the 3^rd quarter, it seems impossible to think of anything else right now. I trust that you, your family, friends, pets, and businesses are all safe. If you or anyone you know needs information or assistance with real estate related matters, I can help; just give me a call. The sheer number of people displaced and needing replacement housing suggests that effects will be felt here in Marin and indeed in the greater part of the Central and North Bay areas. Some displaced people will look to make a permanent change, others will rent and begin the process of rebuilding. 80% of owners rebuilt after the Oakland Hills fire. Early indications are that rents in Marin will increase (any increases about 10% are considered “gouging” and are a punishable offense, according to a front-page Marin IJ article 10/19/17). Expect some homes currently “For Sale” to be withdrawn and relisted as “For Rent.” Some displaced residents will buy, figuring the time to rebuild will take several years at least. Overall, I expect the fire will produce firmer rental rates and sales prices. 

2017 Q1: Appreciating Market Rises Again

Just when we thought the market was flattening out after 6+ years of appreciation, it has come roaring back this Spring. Long-awaited interest rate increases and high employment are producing exceptionally strong sales prices. Thinking of selling? Don’t wait- let's list your home now. Thinking of buying? Let’s design a savvy strategy that keeps you ahead of your competition and gets you your dream home now.

Year End 2016: Something for Everyone!

Year End 2016: Something for Everyone!

Buyers still have historically low rates, Sellers have high prices. 2017 is the year to fulfill your property objectives. 

Prices continued to moderate as the year drew to a close, ending the year up 8.1% overall versus 13.6% and 9.4% for 2015 and 2014 respectively. Increased interest rates, political concerns, and normal cyclical pressures all combined to produce a positive, but more moderate year. Most real estate professionals expect more of the same as we get underway in 2017. And lets face it, 8+% is still an incredible result! 

2016 Q1 Market Update- Marin County Single Family Home Sales

2016 Q1 Market Update: Say it isn’t Slow!
Overall, Marin house prices continued higher, but in individual towns, some were up, others down. Could this be the beginning of price moderation? This has been a topic of conversation amongst real estate professionals for several months now—the fact that the market feels as if it is slowing down. Whereas 2 years ago, we might see 10 offers on a property, now it is closer to 3-5. And wow, we are starting to see real negotiations taking place and with them, monetary concessions from Sellers. Still a high priced market, to be sure, but some welcome moderation is returning. A “normal”, balanced market would make for a nice change! Call me today for ideas on how YOU can benefit from these market shifts. 

2015 3rd quarter update

Market Update Q3 – 2015:  Pausing for Breath

Overall Marin activity for Q3 ’15 shows little change from last year at this time.  Units sold were up less than 1% and prices were up less than 1/2%, confirming what real estate professionals have been feeling for the past 4 months, a moderating market.  One of the key metrics that agents track is the proportion of MLS listed properties that are under contract.  In April 2015, 50% of the 776 MLS listed properties were under contract.  Now, 6 months later, 40% of the 759 MLS listed properties were under contract—a 10% decline in this important metric.   Out in the field, we are still seeing multiple offers, but instead of 10, we may be seeing 3-5.  And properties are taking longer to get into contract.  This moderating trend is giving exhausted Buyers new energy and opportunities for accepted offers. 

3^rd Q ended with average single family home prices reaching $1,371,375, an impressive 10% increase from 2013. Good news for Sellers; for Buyers too. Higher prices mean more Sellers are 
now willing to list/sell! The supply of homes available for sale is still below long term trends (2.3 months  of inventory versus something like our “normal” 4 – 4.5 months), yet is significantly higher than the 1.25 – 1.5 months of inventory which we were seeing at in the 1^st quarter of this year.  And mortgage rates are declining again, with some 30 year jumbo loans below 4.0%. With more selection and lower mortgage rates, motivated Buyers can still find their dream home before the end of the year!  Call me today to discuss your objectives for buying or selling as we move toward 2015! 

Questions in the Face of a Continuing Tight Supply

The trend of the last 18 months continues, with a lack of supply of homes for sale driving prices up substantially.  For Q1 2014 overall, prices were up almost 32% on average from Q1 2013.  Despite increasing prices, there are still not enough new homes available for sale to satisfy demand.  As of this writing (5/30/15), only 484 homes were for sale in the entire county.  The biggest consideration preventing more Sellers from listing their homes for sale?  “Where will we go”?    Competition amongst Buyers for homes remains fierce, with multiple offers and all cash offers becoming commonplace.   The top question on Buyers’ minds:  “How can I present a winning offer”?  Call me today for sound, sensible, answers to these questions;  let me help you make sense of this market with strategies that produce top dollar results for Sellers and the winning bid for Buyers! 

My promise to you remains unchanged:  candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services.  Always!

Good news! Frank Howard Allen is now Coldwell Banker!

We are #1 in Marin County, #1 in the Bay Area, #1 in California. 
Our market share consistently ranks approximately 25% of the Marin real estate market earning us a commanding advantage over our competitors.  As the number one real estate company in key regions including California and throughout the United States, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage represents hundreds of buyers and sellers throughout the state, across the nation and internationally every day. 

Our powerful connections, together with our unmatched marketing resources, make it easy to see why no other company is better equipped to give your home the most competitive possible exposure and deliver more potential buyers to your front door.  We're proud so many people put their trust in us and we look forward to proving our reputation with you.  

We are locally managed, yet offer strong national and international connections.  

One out of every nine homes sold in the United States involves a Coldwell Banker Sales Associate.  

Let me know how I can help you with your Real Estate needs.  

3rd Quarter 2013- "Have we reached the tipping point?"

Continued strong sales statistics mask what Realtors have been talking about for  the past 2 months:  activity has slowed.  Don’t get me wrong, we still have an active market and it has its attractions for both Buyers and Sellers alike.   Sellers with move-in condition homes are still receiving multiple offers but a little more slowly and with fewer Buyers involved.  A recent listing of mine received 3 offers, 14 days after it was on the market and the offers came in over a 5 day span.  Why the slower pace?  Most professionals feel that the  increase in mortgage rates in the late Spring/early Summer is largely responsible.    But there is a silver lining in this slowdown:  personally, I think the more muted pace is a sign that the recovery in the market will be sustained over a long period and that both Buyers and Sellers will share in that benefit.  Call me today with your questions about how you can profit from this market.  

My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services.  Always!  

Market Update 2Q 2013: Buyers Pushing Back?

Market Update Q2 2013:  Buyers Pushing Back?

 

The market has come roaring back this year, with the shortage of homes for sale and low mortgage rates producing multiple offers for Sellers and frenzied anxiety for Buyers.  Some Buyers are beginning to wonder if this pace can be sustained.  Might they be better off continuing to save and waiting until the market stabilizes a bit?   The recent increase in mortgage rates, as much as ½ % on some mortgage products, is only adding to this sentiment.  For Sellers, thorough home preparation and shrewd pricing are critical to producing satisfying sales results.  For Buyers, a re-examination of “must haves” vis-à-vis older listings that have been passed over, could yield the gem that others have missed. 

 

Call me today for the successful insights and strategies you need in this market.  My promise to you remains unchanged:  candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services.  Always!

What a difference a year makes!

Prices have crept up throughout 2012, due to a shortage of properties available for sale, coupled with extremely low mortgage rates.  It is one of those very rare times when both Sellers and Buyers are benefiting from the market, with a slight advantage to Sellers at this point in time.   Multiple offers are becoming frequent again.   What’s on tap for 2013?   More of the same:

1. Low number of homes for sale (“low inventory”)
2. Low mortgage rates (“high demand”)

Wild Cards for 2013: 

• Mortgage interest deductibility:  any reduction or limit on tax deductibility will have a negative effect on home values.
• Unemployment:  currently at 7.7%.  A continued decline in unemployment should improve demand for homes and may improve supply as people move in / out to capitalize on new job opportunities.
•  Mortgage interest rates:  the Federal Reserve has indicated that they will keep rates low through 2013, but any uptick will dampen demand. 

What does all this mean for you?

• If you are contemplating changing your home for lifestyle reasons (downsizing/upsizing, better floor plan, multi-level to single level, reduce commute, better neighborhood), now is the time
• If you have dreamed of a second home, now is the time
• If you have dreamed of diversifying your investment portfolio or your IRA/401K portfolio, by adding real estate to the mix, now is the time!

I want to help you achieve these goals and look forward to acting as your “sounding board” for these important decisions.  If you are considering any changes for 2013, let’s talk now about how I can help you and your family make as profitable and pleasant a transition as possible.  My commitment to you remains unchanged:  candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services.  Always!

Best,

Susan

415 925 3264

scoleman@fhallen.com

Marin Home Sales Soar! Some tips for you-

Below is an article from the Marin IJ. "Marin Single Family Home Sales Soar".   Prices are creeping up, in response to supply and demand (low supply, high demand), low mortgage rates and comparatively low prices (relative to the peak of 2006 – 2007). Chances are, if you’ve been looking for a home for some time, that when you DO find the “right” home, a dozen other Buyers will think it’s the right home for them too. How to remain competitive, as a Buyer in this sort of a market?

1. Move your price point DOWN 10%, to give you room to respond in a multiple offer situation.

2. Re-examine older listings that have failed to sell and in this case examine 10% ABOVE your target price. Sellers may not reduce their price on the MLS, but after 45+ days on the market, may be softening on their attitude to offers at less than the stated asking price.

3. Re-examine your “wish list” to see if some previously “must haves” have become negotiable.

4. Write offer terms that are quick, clear and clean. Can you pay “all cash”? Can you inspect before getting into contract, so that you do not require inspection contingencies? Can you close in less than 30 days? All of these “tighter” terms will make your offer more competitive.

Buyers are finding homes every day, as this article demonstrates— by thinking “outside the box” you can be one of them! Call me with any questions or further thoughts.

Best, Susan


Marin Independent Journal

Marin Single-Family Home Sales Soar

By Janis Mara

Marin Independent Journal

Posted: 08/16/2012 04:11:51 PM PDT

Marin single-family home sales shot up in July and the median sale price increased to $820,000, according to figures Thursday from the county assessor's office.

A total of 248 single-family home sales were recorded in Marin in July, up 113 percent from 116 a year earlier and the highest monthly figure since June 2011. The median sale price was up from $790,000 in July 2011.

Total condominium sales rose 27 percent year to year, to 65 in July, up from 51 in the same month in 2011; the median condo price was $349,000, compared with $339,000 a year earlier.

"This isn't surprising, because we are seeing pressure on prices now," said George Crowe, a Realtor with Alain Pinel in Corte Madera. "So many houses are getting multiple offers and getting bid up over asking price, so that's going to bring up the median price."

The law of supply and demand is one of the factors behind the price increases. Crowe said inventory is tight in Marin, a phenomenon that began sometime around April.

Only 569 single-family homes were on the market in Marin in July, compared with 772 in July of last year, according to Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, a multiple listing service.

The number of condos for sale dropped even more dramatically; there were 240 condos on the market in July 2011, compared with a mere 92 this July.

"There was a glut of condos for awhile and prices dropped, but that probably ended a year ago," Crowe said. "It was hard to sell condos for awhile, but that has changed."

A total of 262 properties on the market entered a contract for a pending sale in July, and the exact same number of properties entered such a contract a year earlier.

"Inventory has shrunk and even the rental market is very tight," said Jeff Marples, a Sausalito real estate broker.

"People are getting more optimistic and saying, 'Rather than taking a loss, I will hold on and rent my house because I can rent it for more than my mortgage,'" Marples said. That way, the broker said, homeowners can keep their homes and wait to sell when the market is better.

________________________________________

Market Continues to Stabilize- A Window of Opportunity

Low mortgage rates and a low inventory of homes for sale continue to result in increased numbers of homes sold and increasing prices in many towns in Marin.  What does this improvement look like?  Sales results for “move-in ready” up-to-date homes are responsible for much of these improving results.  Results for homes that require updating—cosmetic, structural or both—are still sobering.  Across the board, accurate pricing based on a realistic analysis of the comps is essential.  Buyers remain well-educated and savvy, ready to pay for value when they see it, but expecting appropriate adjustments for homes that need work of any sort. 

If you have been waiting to buy or sell, “until the market improves” this could be your window of opportunity.  

Call me today for a fact-filled, pressure free conversation about how I can help you get the best results possible!

How's the market at the end of the 1st Quarter? "Multiple Offers and Brisk Sales"

It’s the end of the first quarter and already 570 homes have sold this year. And another 547 are under contract to sell. Technically, this is a Sellers’ market and we are seeing multiple offers and brisk sales throughout the county. So, what’s going on? Simple:


1. Very little inventory (i.e., property) for sale—very good for Sellers.


2. Low home prices.


3. Historically low mortgage rates (3 7/8% - 4 1/8%)—very good for Buyers.

It’s unusual to have these conditions occurring simultaneously. If your life circumstances (or those of someone you know) would be improved from changing where you live (kids grown--time to downsize, new baby on the way--need more space, loss of a spouse or partner, marriage, divorce, job transfer etc., big bonus, reduced income) call me! I can advise you on how to structure your sale or purchase strategy to get the best of what this market has to offer.

My promise to you, and anyone you refer to me, remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

How's the market in early 2012?? Marin County Real Estate

The market is still in the process of stabilizing; the number of homes selling is increasing, but prices generally are vulnerable.

Low interest rates are fueling activity

Distressed sales will continue into 2012

Homes in current, move in condition are selling far quicker and for more money than homes that aren’t.

If you are planning any changes for 2012, let’s talk now so I can help you formulate the most profitable strategy possible!

My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

3rd Quarter 2011- Hot Pockets and Distressed Owner Services

Mortgage rates dipped below 4% for 30 year, conventional mortgages and just in time, as conforming loan limits (the maximum mortgage amount that will be guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or FHA) for Marin have been reduced from $729,750 to $625,500, effective October 1, 2011. So, assuming a 20% down payment, homes costing more than $781,875 will require "jumbo" mortgages and "jumbo" pricing. This compared to $912,188 at the old level. Still a great time to be a Buyer and indeed to be a Seller as the low mortgage rates mean Buyers have more to spend and more Buyers will be able to qualify.

Our market continued largely as it has for the last 2 quarters: the number of homes sold is increasing, but prices remain weak. Homes are selling and selling well, if they are priced realistically for this market. We saw flurries of activity this quarter (yes, with multiple offers) in some of the higher priced segments of some cities. These hot pockets were transitory however. Expect this to continue until jobs, jobs and jobs start to recover.

And finally, while I have been successfully advising buyers and sellers on short sales for some time, I am pleased to announce that I now hold the SFR (Short Sale & Foreclosure Resource) certification from the National Association of Realtors. If you know anyone who wants/needs information on the plusses and minuses of a short sale, I guarantee a confidential, informative and helpful conversation.

Pragmatism - 1st Quarter 2011 Update

In general terms, the market continued to show solid gains in the number of homes selling, with 382 single family homes selling in Q1. (509 units, when condos are included). Prices, however, were lower in 8 of 13 of Marin’s communities, demonstrating that Sellers are still having to be pragmatic in this market. The rough decline since the “peak” in 2007? Approximately 20% overall in Central Marin. I’m hearing less from Sellers about “waiting for the market to ‘recover’ ” before selling, though many continue to rent out their properties. If that can be done at a positive or neutral cash flow, great. If not, the monthly negative cash flow pushes the so called “recovery” date even further into the future. As I’ve stated before, the decision to act or not, really depends on where you want to go next, literally and figuratively. Buyers continue to be extremely well informed on prices and relative values, thanks to the internet. Most will hold out for the right home, in the belief that prices will remain stagnant or weak. Continued low interest rates are benefitting both Buyers and Sellers. Look for an active Q2 as sales delayed from Q1 due to wet weather, get underway.
My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

Market Update- "Consolidation Continues"

For the most part, Sellers came to terms with the "new" market in 2010. Slightly more than 3 years after the first credit difficulties emerged in the sub-prime market (8/07), the data show an increase in the number of single family homes sold in Marin, 2010 v. 2009, in all cities except Ross and Novato. However, the prices at which sales are occurring were lower in 2010 than in 2009 in over half of our cities. In other words, despite lower prices in some towns, Sellers are indeed moving ahead with their lives. Sales were advanced into Q1 2010, due to tax incentives aimed at both new and experienced Buyers, which then expired in April. In 2011, I expect a continued pragmatism on the part of market participants. We’ll likely see more short sales and indeed foreclosures in the middle and higher end of the market. Mortgage rates are still extremely attractive, and represent an opportunity for both Buyers and Sellers.

My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

Has the Market Bottomed Out?

One of the ways Realtors, including this one, get new listings is by calling "expireds"—the loose trade term for those listings which did not sell, and have expired or in fact been cancelled. The idea is that the Sellers of these homes are the most motivated and represent one of the best opportunities for doing business in the near term. Sometimes the home was marketed ineffectively: poor exposure, lousy photos, inadequate knowledge of the amenities. Sometimes it’s as “simple” as unrealistic pricing. No matter what the reason for not achieving a sale, the subsequent actions of these Sellers can provide a good indicator of what Sellers at the forefront of the market are thinking. And right now, many of them are choosing to lease out their properties, rather than reduce their price to achieve a sale. Many of these properties, my latest rough estimates are as high as 30%, are being leased out until the Spring selling season, when the thinking goes, sales will pick up . . . . are these Sellers just putting off the inevitable or is this trend a signal to Buyers that this really is the bottom? We never know until the bottom is behind us, but many of us in the real estate business can’t believe the deals that are out there for Buyers right now. Couple this with incredibly low interest rates (30 year conventional mortgages as low as 4.0% recently) and it’s a hard market to beat for value. And those low rates benefit Sellers too, by enabling more ready, willing and able Buyers to be active. Why wait?

Regular quarterly statistics: see my website: www.MarinHomeProperties.com