Marin County Homes And Real Estate Blog

3rd Quarter 2011- Hot Pockets and Distressed Owner Services

2011-10-11T15:09:00.000-07:00

Mortgage rates dipped below 4% for 30 year, conventional mortgages and just in time, as conforming loan limits (the maximum mortgage amount that will be guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or FHA) for Marin have been reduced from $729,750 to $625,500, effective October 1, 2011. So, assuming a 20% down payment, homes costing more than $781,875 will require "jumbo" mortgages and "jumbo" pricing. This compared to $912,188 at the old level. Still a great time to be a Buyer and indeed to be a Seller as the low mortgage rates mean Buyers have more to spend and more Buyers will be able to qualify.

Our market continued largely as it has for the last 2 quarters: the number of homes sold is increasing, but prices remain weak. Homes are selling and selling well, if they are priced realistically for this market. We saw flurries of activity this quarter (yes, with multiple offers) in some of the higher priced segments of some cities. These hot pockets were transitory however. Expect this to continue until jobs, jobs and jobs start to recover.

And finally, while I have been successfully advising buyers and sellers on short sales for some time, I am pleased to announce that I now hold the SFR (Short Sale & Foreclosure Resource) certification from the National Association of Realtors. If you know anyone who wants/needs information on the plusses and minuses of a short sale, I guarantee a confidential, informative and helpful conversation.

Pragmatism - 1st Quarter 2011 Update

2011-05-05T15:34:00.000-07:00

In general terms, the market continued to show solid gains in the number of homes selling, with 382 single family homes selling in Q1. (509 units, when condos are included). Prices, however, were lower in 8 of 13 of Marin’s communities, demonstrating that Sellers are still having to be pragmatic in this market. The rough decline since the “peak” in 2007? Approximately 20% overall in Central Marin. I’m hearing less from Sellers about “waiting for the market to ‘recover’ ” before selling, though many continue to rent out their properties. If that can be done at a positive or neutral cash flow, great. If not, the monthly negative cash flow pushes the so called “recovery” date even further into the future. As I’ve stated before, the decision to act or not, really depends on where you want to go next, literally and figuratively. Buyers continue to be extremely well informed on prices and relative values, thanks to the internet. Most will hold out for the right home, in the belief that prices will remain stagnant or weak. Continued low interest rates are benefitting both Buyers and Sellers. Look for an active Q2 as sales delayed from Q1 due to wet weather, get underway.
My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

Market Update- "Consolidation Continues"

2011-03-02T13:29:00.000-08:00

For the most part, Sellers came to terms with the "new" market in 2010. Slightly more than 3 years after the first credit difficulties emerged in the sub-prime market (8/07), the data show an increase in the number of single family homes sold in Marin, 2010 v. 2009, in all cities except Ross and Novato. However, the prices at which sales are occurring were lower in 2010 than in 2009 in over half of our cities. In other words, despite lower prices in some towns, Sellers are indeed moving ahead with their lives. Sales were advanced into Q1 2010, due to tax incentives aimed at both new and experienced Buyers, which then expired in April. In 2011, I expect a continued pragmatism on the part of market participants. We’ll likely see more short sales and indeed foreclosures in the middle and higher end of the market. Mortgage rates are still extremely attractive, and represent an opportunity for both Buyers and Sellers.

My promise to you remains unchanged: candid, truthful and professional real estate advice and services. Always!

Has the Market Bottomed Out?

2010-11-01T13:20:00.000-07:00

One of the ways Realtors, including this one, get new listings is by calling "expireds"—the loose trade term for those listings which did not sell, and have expired or in fact been cancelled. The idea is that the Sellers of these homes are the most motivated and represent one of the best opportunities for doing business in the near term. Sometimes the home was marketed ineffectively: poor exposure, lousy photos, inadequate knowledge of the amenities. Sometimes it’s as “simple” as unrealistic pricing. No matter what the reason for not achieving a sale, the subsequent actions of these Sellers can provide a good indicator of what Sellers at the forefront of the market are thinking. And right now, many of them are choosing to lease out their properties, rather than reduce their price to achieve a sale. Many of these properties, my latest rough estimates are as high as 30%, are being leased out until the Spring selling season, when the thinking goes, sales will pick up . . . . are these Sellers just putting off the inevitable or is this trend a signal to Buyers that this really is the bottom? We never know until the bottom is behind us, but many of us in the real estate business can’t believe the deals that are out there for Buyers right now. Couple this with incredibly low interest rates (30 year conventional mortgages as low as 4.0% recently) and it’s a hard market to beat for value. And those low rates benefit Sellers too, by enabling more ready, willing and able Buyers to be active. Why wait?

Regular quarterly statistics: see my website: www.MarinHomeProperties.com

Compelling Stabilization

2010-07-01T13:44:00.000-07:00

The trend toward stability continued with increased numbers of homes selling in all Marin towns, except Ross, where the number of homes sold is usually so small, one cannot really discern a trend. Prices showed mixed improvements, reminding us again that the answer to “How’s the market?” depends on property price range and town. One of my colleagues, in giving me feedback on one of my listings, just used a word that perfectly captures Buyers’ attitude: “compelling”. Homes must be marketed to show compelling features that translate into lifestyle benefits in order for a Buyer to make an offer. And, in this credit scarce market, the compelling features have to significantly outweigh the challenges of the home. Why? Because 1200 single family homes are currently available for sale in Marin. 214 sold in June. Technically, this is approximately 6 months worth of inventory, and is termed a “neutral” market, but the sheer number of homes available means that Buyers will view a lot of homes before making a purchase decision.

Need help understanding what you can achieve in this market? Call me today for a fact-filled conversation--guaranteed confidential and pressure-free!

Marin Real Estate Update- First Quarter 2010

2010-04-02T08:00:00.000-07:00

Stabilization continued across most towns in Marin during the First Quarter. Most of the market forecasters that I’ve read predict continued stabilization, but no real appreciation to speak of for the next 3 years and some predict longer than that. I rarely hear Sellers saying “I’ll hold off selling until the market recovers” anymore. Why? Because we are finally understanding that “recovery” probably doesn’t mean the sustained levels of double digit appreciation that we saw several years ago. So, Sellers are getting on with their lives and it shows in much more realistic listing prices. Are you renting out your property, waiting to sell until the market improves? Check that your negative carry isn’t pushing your breakeven sale price even further out into the future. Call me if you’d like me to run some numbers for you. In the meantime, Buyers continue to press their advantage, and are only submitting offers to purchase when properties evoke a “wow, that’s a good value” response. Buyers really are doing their homework; expect a flurry of activity as the Federal tax credits for homebuyers expire at the end of April.

Need help understanding what you can achieve in this market? Call me today for a fact-filled conversation--guaranteed confidential and pressure-free!

Signs of Stability

2009-10-19T10:13:00.000-07:00

How do we know when the market has hit bottom? We really don't until the low point has come and gone. But one of the key indicators that we are reaching stability is when the number of transactions starts to increase. We are seeing this in Marin's more affordable home property markets (San Rafael, San Anselmo, Novato). Month to month figures for units sold (say Oct '09 vs Sept '09) confirms a trend toward stability in these areas. Hard to believe, but we are seeing multiple offers, over asking price. Novato, under $500K is positively on fire, a real Seller's market. Some of our more exclusive home property towns (Ross, Sausalito) are also showing new signs of stabililty, though the number of transactions remains small and most experts still expect a bumpy ride ahead for the high end ($1.5MM+). Low interest rates for conforming mortgages and first time Buyer tax credits are in part responsible for these improving results. I expect an active 4th quarter as Buyers continue to capitalize on these conditions. See 3rd quarter stats on my Stats page.

How Trousers Explain Buyers of Marin Home Properties

2009-02-21T18:53:00.000-08:00

We all have them from time to time, the “ah-ha” moment. Mine came to me in Banana Republic, on my way to run an errand. Now, I absolutely hate shopping; I just don’t find it amusing. I have to make my way through racks and racks of disheveled clothing in the hope of finding one decent thing. It’s frustrating, boring and more importantly time-wasting. But just to see how drastically the major stores were reducing their inventory, I walked through Banana Republic, where they were advertising “up to 70% off”. “Sure, I thought to myself—I’ll bet it's all junk”. I started in on the rack of trousers—“nope, nope, nope, hold on . . . . Wow!” A pair of wool pants, classically cut, nice subtle pattern, great fit. Originally $98.00, now marked down to an unbelievable, $13.99. This was truly a bargain. Sold!

How does this experience explain the market for Marin home properties? It is exactly this same "Wow" experience that Buyers need to have in order to make a home property purchase decision in this market. Properties simply have to represent excellent value for money, and arguably the very best on the “rack” of property choices. The property has to evoke an immediate “Wow” reaction. And then the facts show, the home will sell. As recently as last week, just such a home sold in the Dominican, priced at $699,000, it had 4 offers on it, with 3 more waiting in the wings.

2009-02-03T19:52:00.000-08:00

Down But Not Out: Don’t Let the Headlines Put You on the Sidelines

The numbers tell only a small part of the story. Moderate weakness through Q3 ’08, then significant decline in Q4’ 08 as credit and underlying confidence evaporated (see additional statistics at my website). It takes some getting used to, the thought that indeed our properties are part of markets that can decline as well as appreciate. If you don’t have strong motivations for moving, stay put, enjoy your home and your family. If you must sell (job transfer, health, lifestyle) your well prepared home can still sell well given the reduced inventory we are experiencing. For many others, this market adjustment can spell opportunity. Opportunity to buy a home (now more affordable) for the first time, opportunity to trade up more easily than 2 years ago (a 10% across the board decline means a lot less dollars on a $1MM home than on a $500K home), opportunity to diversify your investments (including your IRA investments) to include real estate, opportunity to help your children buy and stay in Marin. There are great opportunities out there: a bank owned property for $650K in a neighborhood that was at $900K; a motivated seller who wants to downsize for health reasons. Use this market to your advantage.

Marin IJ Reports Sales Off

2008-09-22T14:15:00.001-07:00

On Friday, 9/19, the IJ reported home sales down for August, with number of single family detached homes off by 10% and the price at which those homes sold off by 19% both relative to August of 2007 (see my website at www.MarinHomeProperties.com, "Resources". So, the trend of fewer single family homes selling continues. Does the data mean that the price of your home, or homes on average in Marin has now declined 19%? No. This figure reflects mostly the trend in available mortgage financing. The new jumbo conforming loan limit of $729,250 equates (at 20% down) to a purchase price of $911,562. So guess what homes are selling the most frequently? Those priced under $911,562. You'll start to see listing prices at $912,000, reflecting this reality.

But interestingly, we are still seeing signs of strength in the high end, say $2.0MM and over. A property in Corte Madera just went into contract with at least 2 offers on it--the list price? $1,999,000.

2008-07-07T22:32:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the first installment of Marin Home Properties blog. Just in time for my Quarterly Update (email me to receive hard copy).

Where we are now . . .
Stats still show Marin’s home prices holding up well. That “flight to quality” I mentioned last quarter remains evident: homes in good condition, good locations, good school districts AND priced correctly continue to sell quickly, at or over asking and sometimes with multiple offers. The key? Good prep on all fronts (condition, price, presale inspections and disclosures). We are even seeing signs of improvement: multiple offers and over asking prices on some of the weaker segments (Novato, condos).

Where we are going . . . .

Economists continue to talk of rising mortgage rates, which could lead to further downward price pressure however. And, its not all talk. Those Buyers who are in the market (ahhh, they are the smart ones!) are indeed now starting to feel the pinch of higher rates. Nonetheless, there are a number of desirable homes that continue to sit, and truly for no good reason. Opportunity!